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To EV, or not to EV?

It's time.

Our champion workhorse of a vehicle needs to be replaced.

In the last sixteen months, we've averaged over $300 a month on repairs. The latest system to go wobbly is the transmission, notoriously expensive to repair/replace, and the odometer passed 200,000 miles last month. So it's time. And expected.

But circumstances have changed.

My original plan, dating back over a decade, was to replace this vehicle with another certified pre-owned, low-mileage (under 20k), high-reliability car.  Heck, my original original plan was to be able to purchase said replacement outright, and we had saved about $4,000 toward that goal when we fell into The Trough of Loss and Despair and Immense Financial Obligation, five years ago, which swallowed that $4,000 whole (and kept going).

Back then, Spouse and I sat in offices all day, Spouse commuted by train, and my round-trip for work was under 30 miles. In an average week, our mileage was under 200. Now, Spouse drives to client sites 4 days a week, and our average mileage is easily double. When a third of your work day is spent in your car, you begin to really value features that make those hours less painful and cramped.

The estimated price tag for the original plan was $20,000-$25,000.  Since Spouse started the new position, I had provisionally revised that to $25,000-$30,000, in order to have features that would improve Spouse's commute, particularly adaptive cruise control. But obviously, we'd still only be looking at certified pre-owned vehicles.

Then Spouse started making the case for a crossover instead of a sedan, particularly in winter weather. Spouse is the one on the roads -- I work from home in bad weather -- and therefore has a better idea of the necessity. Okay. Make that $30,000-$35,000. Sigh. But still, a certified pre-owned crossover.

But.

Electric cars, y'all. Electric. Zero emissions. Being part of the solution, not part of the problem.

And if that's not enough awesome, that electric power means so much of the upkeep of a traditional vehicle is gone. No radiator. No oil. No tune-ups. No transmission.

And the frugal cherry on top of that thrifty sundae? Those intricately machined parts, doing daily battle against entropy, are the ones that can't be sustained comfortably past 200,000 miles. There's no reason an EV couldn't last 300,000 miles, or more.

Yes, the battery would eventually need to be replaced, and yes, that's hella expensive -- think $4,000-$8,000.  But replacement would be a decade or more away, and battery prices continue to fall.

Trouble is, we have range anxiety.  Spouse travels. A car that needs to be charged every 120 miles isn't going to work. We need a 200-mile range, at least.

But.

The latest EVs are out, and range has improved.  A lot.  We're talking 200-280 mile range.

But.

An EV with that range would be new, and new cars cost more. The price range would go up, too -- say, to $43,000-$50,000.  Ouch ouch ouch.  And we'd have to get a charger, and have the garage wired for it, so add another ouch.

But.

Incentives, y'all. We could conceivably get state and federal tax rebates of almost $10,000 for buying a new EV.  Essentially, you don't get the incentives till year 2, so the first year of car payments plus charger costs before that would be rough, but the incentives would lower the effective cost of an EV to $33,500-$40,500. That's close to my revised gas-engine range.

After year one, we'd also start to see some small savings on oil changes and maintenance.
Charger costs would wipe out fuel costs savings the first year, but again, the second year there should be significant savings. FuelEconomy.gov, which lets you do a side-by-side comparison for different models, shows the EV we're interested in would save almost $1,000/year over the fuel cost of an average new gas-engine vehicle over the next 5 years.

Financially -- leaving aside the no-emissions factor -- I think the choice can be summed up as follows:

  • A new EV will cost more up front, but last longer and have fewer repair/maintenance costs than a gas vehicle. 
  • Can we afford the additional up-front cost? Does it pay for itself? Over how long a period? 

Why can't we have a vehicle that runs on fear and anxiety? Then I'd be a national damn resource.

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